This report is a summary of third-party economic research and perspectives.
Key Economic Insights
- Global: Global economic expansion forecasts raised for advanced economies, lowered for emerging markets that lag recovery from COVID-19.
- U.S.: US real GDP growth rate was 6.5% for the second quarter. The economy’s size now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.
- Ohio: June 2021 jobs up by 19,900 – best monthly jobs gain since January 2021.
28.5% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 14.7% is fully vaccinated. 4.01B doses have been administered globally. The Delta variant has now been detected in 132 countries. Advanced economies have administered more than three times as many vaccines as emerging markets according to the IMF.
Global economic expansion forecasts for 2021 remain at 6%, unchanged from April. Growth forecasts for advanced economies rose to 5.6%. Forecasts for emerging and developing economies were lowered to 6.3%. The European Central Bank will not increase its key interest rate until inflation moves much closer to 2% target to support the eurozone economy as Covid-19 cases trigger new social restrictions and weighs on the region’s large tourism industry. Foreign investment in the U.S. housing market fell to a record low since the NAR started tracking foreign buyer activity in 2011. China’s CATL unveils a sodium-ion EV battery with plans to set up a supply chain for the new technology in 2023.
U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter, up slightly from the revised rate of 6.3% in the first quarter of 2021, but well below estimates of 8.4%. GDP now exceeds its pre-pandemic level. Economists believe growth likely peaked in the second quarter. 57.3% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 49.3% is fully vaccinated. The CDC recommended that fully vaccinated Americans start wearing masks indoors.
New weekly jobless claims dropped to 400,000 above expectations of 380,000. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate near zero and said the economy continues to progress. Inflation remains a major concern for manufacturers despite robust growth in demand and output. Supply-chain pressures and rising costs are expected to persist through the remainder of 2021. Short-term inflation expectations remain at their highest level since August 2008. The ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index declined by 1.1% in July to 59.5%, showing slightly slowing growth. Future inflation expectations eased slightly in July. Longer-term (5-10 years) inflation expectations were revised to 2.9% in early July, down slightly from 3% in May. The Biden Administration proposed rules would increase purchase of U.S-made products.
The total U.S. population grew 0.35% for the year ended July 1, 2020, the lowest ever documented. Growth is expected to remain near flat this year. New home sales fell to a pandemic low at an annualized rate of 676,000, 6.6% below May levels and 19.4% below the June 2020 level of 839,000. The US international trade deficit was $91.2B in June, up $3B from May. Wholesale and retail inventories both increased in June. New orders for durable goods increased 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted $257.6B in June but fell short of forecasted 2% growth expected versus May. U.S. consumer confidence was relatively unchanged in July. The index remains at its highest level since February 2020. Consumer spending (PCE) in June remains above pre-Covid levels.
Chicago faces increasing bottlenecks in the global supply chain as rail, trucking and logistics operators struggle with increasing imports. Container imports into Southern California’s ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have surged at a record pace. Seaborne imports to the ports for onward shipment to Chicago and the surrounding area rose 32% year-over-year in the second quarter and 18% compared with the same period in 2019.
Ohio Employment & Economic Insights
Ohio’s private sector employment was 4,563,800 in June 2021, up by 19,900 jobs – the best monthly gain since January 2021. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced the approval of assistance for six projects set to create 591 new jobs and retain 432 jobs statewide. The projects are expected to result in more than $38M in new direct payroll and spur more than $30M in direct investments across Ohio.
Ohio was ranked among top 10 states for multiple categories – Manufacturing Employment (#8), Health Care Jobs (#6), Aerospace/Defense (#7), Solar Power Jobs (#9), Automotive Manufacturing (#2) – in Busines Facilities 2021 State Rankings report. At the metro level – Columbus was ranked #7 in Best Business Climate (Large) and #9 in Fintech Leaders, Cincinnati #10 in Best Business Climate (Mid-sized), Cleveland #1 in Health Care Hubs (Large), and Dayton #7 in Health Care Hubs (Mid-Sized).
49.4% of Ohioans have received at least one COVID-19 vaccination according to data reported to the Ohio Department of Health, with 46.1% being fully vaccinated. The number of new unemployment claims (NSA) filed in Ohio fell by nearly 2,000 to 10,603. Ohio has 155,935 continuing claims for the week ended July 24.
Positive Company-Specific News
- PPG will expand production capacity for gloss beverage can coatings at their Delaware Plant; expect new volume to increase the company’s total US production. by 40%.
- Barbaricum selected Dayton for its newest regional office; expects to create 80 full-time jobs, generating $7.2M in new annual payroll by Dec. 31, 2024.
- Hilco Vision announced plans to establish a new 246,000-SF manufacturing operation at Fairfield Commerce Park. The company plans to create 150 new jobs in its first year of occupancy.
- FlightSafety International has announced plans to relocate its headquarters to Columbus, Ohio, investing $3.1M. The company is adding more than 100 new jobs in Columbus.
- CBIZ expects to create 25 full-time positions, generating $3M in new annual payroll and retaining $34M in existing payroll from the company’s new project in Independence.
- Century Mold Company expects to create 70 full-time positions, generating $3.7M in new annual payroll and retaining $2.8M in existing payroll from the company’s expansion project in Monroe.
- AquaBounty identified Pioneer as the location for its planned large-scale farm, with a planned annual production capacity of 10,000 metric tons. The Company is finalizing the design for the estimated 479,000 SF facility and expects to invest over $200M in the project. Once in operation, the farm is expected to bring over 100 new jobs to the region.
- Tekion expects to create 103 full-time positions, generating $7.5M in new annual payroll and retaining $142,000 in existing payroll from the company’s new project in West Chester Township.
- Midwest Electric will receive a $300,000 grant from the USDA to help Mercer Community Land Development LLC improve roads and the sanitary, stormwater and sewer systems at the Marion Township Industrial Park.
- Meridian Bioscience signed a definitive agreement to acquire North American BreathTek Business of Otsuka America Pharmaceutical for $20M.
- Babcock & Wilcox entered into two contracts to design and supply advanced technologies that achieve reduced emissions and generate cleaner energy at a power plant in Asia. The total value of the contracts is more than $11M.