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This report is a summary of third-party economic research and perspectives to foster communication with business and economic development stakeholders.

Key Economic Insights

  • Global: IATA forecast the airline industry will lose $12B next year but return to profitability in 2023.
  • U.S.: The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 67 in Q3 after hitting an all-time high of 82 in Q2. Oil rose to over $82/barrel, its highest since late 2014.
  • Ohio: A new economic impact analysis shows Ohio’s military and largest federal installations generate directly and indirectly $40B in gross regional product, support 385,000 jobs, account for 6% of Ohio’s economy..

Global Insights

46.8% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.  The WTO forecasts Asian exports to be up 18.8%, North American exports to be up 8%, and European exports to be up 7.8% from 2019 levels by the end of 2022.  Euro zone consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.4% year on year in September, the highest reading since 2008.  The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was 54.1 in September, unchanged from August and marking expansion for the 15th consecutive month Japan Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.5, down from 52.7 in August. Taiwan Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.7, marking the worst reading in twelve months.

The International Air Transport Association forecasts the global airline industry to lose close to $12B next year. IATA forecasts the industry will return to profitability in 2023, and that total passenger numbers will rise to 3.4B people next year from 2.3B this year.  Crude oil prices jumped to a seven-year high this week after OPEC and its allies declined to significantly increase supplyHonda Motor plans to launch a test rocket by 2030 as it looks to enter the small satellite launch business. Nissan will carry out temporary work stoppages at two Mexican plants due to production adjustments needed to manage a shortage of semiconductor chips.

U.S. Insights

64.5% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 55.7% is fully vaccinated. Democrats and Republicans reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December.  Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Initial jobless claims totaled 326,000 for the week ended Oct. 2, and continuing claims also posted a decline, dropping 97,000 to 2.71M.  51% of small business owners surveyed by NFIB reported they cannot find qualified workers.

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence fell to 67 in Q3 after hitting an all-time high of 82 in Q2.  The ISM Services PMI rose 0.2% from August to 61.9 in September, marking the 16th straight month of growth for the services sector.  U.S. construction spending was unexpectedly flat in August as an increase in public sector projects was offset by weakness in the private sector.  Factory orders increased 1.2%, above forecasts for a 1% rise and following a 0.7% increase in July.  The U.S. trade deficit rose to a record $73.3B in August, up $2.9B from $70.3B in July. Shipments into and out of the U.S. grew in August, but issues with global-supply chains continued. Exports of vehicles and parts fell 8% and imports fell 5.2% as auto makers continued to face severe semiconductor shortages that weighed on production.

Johnson & Johnson is seeking authorization from the FDA for its booster dose for its Covid-19 vaccine, citing effectiveness in clinical studies.  GM will open a battery cell development center in Michigan to cut costs associated with EV production. Jeep unveiled its first Grand Cherokee plug-in hybrid as it attempts to pivot to “green” vehicles.  General Dynamics has launched two new Gulfstream aircraft as it looks to tap a rebound in demand for business jets.  Kellogg’s U.S. cereal plants have halted production as roughly 1,400 workers went on strike. The U.S. Department of Transportation temporarily furloughed 3,700 employees.

Ohio Employment & Economic Insights

More than 6.35M Ohioans have started the COVID-19 vaccination process, marking 64% of the population currently eligible for COVID-19 vaccines.  A new comprehensive economic impact analysis shows Ohio’s military and federal installations directly and indirectly generate $40B in gross regional product, support 385,000 jobs, and account for 6% of Ohio’s economy.  The Ohio Tax Credit Authority (TCA) approved assistance for 12 new projects set to create 2,426 new jobs and retain 3,252 jobs statewide. Collectively, the projects are expected to result in more than $108M in new payroll and spur more than $162M in investment.

Three Ohio organizations were awarded Venture Challenge Grants from the EDA, totaling $3.65M. Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber of Commerce ($1.5M), Ohio Aerospace Institute ($750K) and Rev1 Ventures ($1.4M) were selected as part of the EDA’s “Build to Scale” Program. EDA also awarded approximately $200K in University Center Grants to Cleveland State University, Bowling Green State University, and Ohio University to provide research and technical assistance for regional and statewide innovation initiatives in Ohio. The USDA will invest $9M in Ohio and neighboring states for Regional Conservation Partnership Program Alternative Funding Arrangement projects.

 

Positive Company-Specific News
  • Upstart is doubling its Ohio workforce to more than 1,000 employees. The Columbus office has already topped 500 jobs this year, with another 508 jobs planned.
  • Kroger is looking to hire 1,500 health care workers across the country as it expands its Covid services; will begin administering Covid booster shots and flu vaccinations to eligible populations.
  • Malt Products is increasing its Dayton employees’ wages by $10/hour as the company moves to attract people looking to enter/re-enter the workforce.
  • UES landed a $20M task order on a defense contract for research in advanced ceramic/composite materials and process development for the U.S. Air Force, bringing the total value of the deal to nearly $70M.
  • NP Springfield Industrial has a purchase agreement in place to buy over 100 acres of land at a Springfield industrial park. The site, called Prime Ohio II, could eventually result in nearly 1,000 new jobs in Springfield.
  • Konecranes was awarded a $14M contract for input interface units to be used by the U.S. Army. Work on the 3-year contract will be performed locally, with an ordering period end date of Oct. 2024.
  • Olympic Steel purchased Georgia-based Shaw Stainless & Alloy. The purchase includes Shaw’s stainless-steel distribution/fabrication businesses, and architectural/barrier defense businesses. Shaw will be incorporated into Olympic Steel’s specialty metals segment.

 

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